Biostatistics Advance Access first published online on February 27, 2008
This version published online on March 18, 2008
Biostatistics, doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxm053
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Efficient p-value estimation in massively parallel testing problems
Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada M5T 3M7 r.kustra{at}utoronto.ca
Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada M5T 3M7 and Genetics and Genome Biology, Hospital for Sick Children 15-706, Toronto, ON, Canada M5G 1L7
Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada N6A 5B7
Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada M5T 3M7 and Genetics and Genome Biology, Hospital for Sick Children 15-706, Toronto, ON, Canada M5G 1L7
Genetics and Genome Biology, Hospital for Sick Children 15-706,Toronto, ON, Canada M5G 1L7
* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
We present a new method to efficiently estimate very large numbers of p-values using empirically constructed null distributions of a test statistic. The need to evaluate a very large number of p-values is increasingly common with modern genomic data, and when interaction effects are of interest, the number of tests can easily run into billions. When the asymptotic distribution is not easily available, permutations are typically used to obtain p-values but these can be computationally infeasible in large problems. Our method constructs a prediction model to obtain a first approximation to the p-values and uses Bayesian methods to choose a fraction of these to be refined by permutations. We apply and evaluate our method on the study of association between 2-way interactions of genetic markers and colorectal cancer using the data from the first phase of a large, genome-wide case–control study. The results show enormous computational savings as compared to evaluating a full set of permutations, with little decrease in accuracy.
Keywords: Bayesian testing; Genome-wide association studies; Interaction effects; Permutation distribution; p-value distribution; Random Forest
Received November 27, 2006; revised September 14, 2007; accepted for publication November 5, 2007.