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Biostatistics Advance Access published online on October 15, 2009

Biostatistics, doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxp040
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© 2009 The Author(s)
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/uk/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Varying-coefficient models for longitudinal processes with continuous-time informative dropout

Li Su*

MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK li.su{at}mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk

Joseph W. Hogan

Center for Statistical Sciences, Department of Community Health, Box G-S121-7, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

Dropout is a common occurrence in longitudinal studies. Building upon the pattern-mixture modeling approach within the Bayesian paradigm, we propose a general framework of varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data with informative dropout, where measurement times can be irregular and dropout can occur at any point in continuous time (not just at observation times) together with administrative censoring. Specifically, we assume that the longitudinal outcome process depends on the dropout process through its model parameters. The unconditional distribution of the repeated measures is a mixture over the dropout (administrative censoring) time distribution, and the continuous dropout time distribution with administrative censoring is left completely unspecified. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the repeated measures given the dropout (administrative censoring) times; Bayesian bootstrapping on the observed dropout (administrative censoring) times is carried out to obtain marginal covariate effects. We illustrate the proposed framework using data from a longitudinal study of depression in HIV-infected women; the strategy for sensitivity analysis on unverifiable assumption is also demonstrated.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Missing data; Nonparametric regression; Penalized splines

Received July 17, 2008; revised November 17, 2008; revised March 18, 2009; revised August 6, 2009; accepted for publication September 14, 2009.


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