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Biostatistics 3:565-578 (2002)
© 2002 Oxford University Press

Estimating time to pregnancy from current durations in a cross-sectional sample

Niels Keiding{dagger}, Kajsa Kvist, Helle Hartvig, Mads Tvede and Svend Juul

Niels Keiding, Kajsa Kvist, Helle Hartvig, Mads Tvede. Department of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3, DK-2200, Copenhagen N, Denmark N.Keiding{at}biostat.ku.dk
Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Aarhus, Vennelyst Boulevard 6, DK-8000, Aarhus C, Denmark

{dagger}To whom correspondence should be addressed

A new design for estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy is proposed and investigated. The design is based on recording current durations in a cross-sectional sample of women, leading to statistical problems similar to estimating renewal time distributions from backward recurrence times. Non-parametric estimation is studied in some detail and a parametric approach is indicated. The results are illustrated on Monte Carlo simulations and on data from a recent European collaborative study. The role and applicability of this approach is discussed.

Keywords: Cross-sectional study; Historically prospective study; Nonparametric maximum likelihood; Renewal process; Retrospective study; Time-to-pregnancy


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