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Biostatistics 2004 5(4):545-556; doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxh007
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Biostatistics Vol. 5 No. 4 © Oxford University Press 2004; all rights reserved.

Maximum likelihood estimation of oncogenetic tree models

Anja von Heydebreck

Department of Computational Molecular Biology, Max Planck Institute for Molecular Genetics, D-14195 Berlin, Germany
anja.von.heydebreck{at}merck.de

Bastian Gunawan and László Füzesi

Institute of Pathology, Georg August University Hospital, D–37075 Göttingen, Germany

We present a new approach for modelling the dependences between genetic changes in human tumours. In solid tumours, data on genetic alterations are usually only available at a single point in time, allowing no direct insight into the sequential order of genetic events. In our approach, genetic tumour development and progression is assumed to follow a probabilistic tree model. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be used to reconstruct a tree model for the dependences between genetic alterations in a given tumour type. We illustrate the use of the proposed method by applying it to cytogenetic data from 173 cases of clear cell renal cell carcinoma, arriving at a model for the karyotypic evolution of this tumour.

Keywords: Maximum likelihood; Oncogenesis; Tree model


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