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Biostatistics 2005 6(1):145-155; doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxh023
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Biostatistics Vol. 6 No. 1 © Oxford University Press 2005; all rights reserved.

A Bayesian analysis of multivariate doubly-interval-censored dental data

Arnost Komárek* and Emmanuel Lesaffre

Biostatistical Centre, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Kapucijnenvoer 35, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium arnost.komarek{at}med.kuleuven.ac.be

Tommi Härkänen

National Public Health Institute, Mannerheimintie 166, FIN-00300 Helsinki, Finland

Dominique Declerck

School of Dentistry, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Kapucijnenvoer 7, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium

Jorma I. Virtanen

Institute of Dentistry, University of Helsinki, PO Box 41, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

A Bayesian survival analysis is presented to examine the effect of fluoride-intake on the time to caries development of the permanent first molars in children between 7 and 12 years of age using a longitudinal study conducted in Flanders. Three problems needed to be addressed. Firstly, since the emergence time of a tooth and the time it experiences caries were recorded yearly, the time to caries is doubly interval censored. Secondly, due to the setup of the study, many emergence times were left-censored. Thirdly, events on teeth of the same child are dependent. Our Bayesian analysis is a modified version of the intensity model of Härkänen et al. (2000, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 27, 577–588). To tackle the problem of the large number of left-censored observations a similar Finnish data set was introduced. Our analysis shows no convincing effect of fluoride-intake on caries development.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Intensity models; Multivariate doubly-interval-censored data


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