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Biostatistics Advance Access originally published online on April 28, 2005
Biostatistics 2005 6(4):604-614; doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxi030
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© The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oupjournals.org.

Robust modeling in screening studies: estimation of sensitivity and preclinical sojourn time distribution

Yu Shen*

Department of Biostatistics and Applied Mathematics, M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, Houston, TX 77030, USA yshen{at}mdanderson.org

Marvin Zelen

Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health and the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA 02115, USA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

In early-detection clinical trials, quantities such as the sensitivity of the screening modality and the preclinical duration of the disease are important to describe the natural history of the disease and its interaction with a screening program. Assume that the schedule of a screening program is periodic and that the sojourn time in the preclinical state has a piecewise density function. Modeling the preclinical sojourn time distribution as a piecewise density function results in robust estimation of the distribution function. Our aim is to estimate the piecewise density function and the examination sensitivity using both generalized least squares and maximum likelihood methods. We carried out extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of the methods of estimation. The different estimation methods provide complimentary tools to obtain the unknown parameters. The methods are applied to three breast cancer early-detection trials.

Keywords: Piecewise-constant density function; Preclinical duration; Screening clinical trials; Screening sensitivity; Weighted generalized least squares


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