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Biostatistics Advance Access published online on April 17, 2009
Biostatistics, doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxp010
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© The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.

Air pollution and health in Scotland: a multicity study

Duncan Lee* and Claire Ferguson

Department of Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ UK duncan{at}stats.gla.ac.uk

Richard Mitchell

Public Health and Health Policy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ UK

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

This paper presents an epidemiological study investigating the effects of long-term air pollution exposure on public health in Scotland, focusing on the 4 major urban areas, Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. In particular, the associations between respiratory hospital admissions in 2005 and exposure to both PM10 and NO2 between 2002 and 2004 are estimated using a small-area ecological design. The implementation of such studies requires careful consideration of a number of statistical issues, including how to model spatial correlation, identifiability of the model parameters, and the possible effects of ecological bias. The results show that long-term exposures (over 3 years) to PM10 and NO2 are significantly associated with respiratory hospital admissions in Edinburgh and Glasgow, whereas the risks for Aberdeen and Dundee are generally positive but nonsignificant.

Keywords: Air pollution and health; Bayesian spatial modeling; Ecological bias

Received June 20, 2008; revised November 26, 2008; revised January 7, 2009; revised January 23, 2009; accepted for publication March 3, 2009.


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